The hottest Guangdong paper industry production an

Prospects for the production and marketing situation of Guangdong's paper industry (I)

1 international environment the world economic environment faced by China's paper industry has changed significantly compared with 2002 and 2003, mainly the three world economic systems of the United States, Europe and Japan, which have improved since the second half of 2003. The U.S. economy has recovered rapidly, the European economy has gradually strengthened, Japan has come out of the trough, and Southeast Asian countries and regions have also taken a series of economic stimulus measures, According to the world economic outlook published by the International Monetary Fund, the world economic growth in 2004 is expected to reach 4.1% or 4.2%. The autumn world economic outlook of the world organization for economic cooperation and development predicts that in the three years from 2003 to 2005, the economic growth of the United States will be 2.9%, 4.2% and 3.8%, that of the European Union as a whole will be 0.7%, 1.9% and 2.5%, and that of Japan will be 2.7%, 1.8% and 1.8%; The Asian economic growth rate predicted by the Asian Bank in 2004 is 6.6%, and the growth rate of developing countries predicted by the International Monetary Fund is 5% - 5.6% respectively. With the improvement of the international economic environment, there is bound to be a new situation of increased demand, shortage of raw materials and rising prices. The domestic economic environment in 2004 and 2005 was better than the international environment. China's GDP grew by 9.1% in 2003, and its per capita GDP reached US $1000. It reached 9.7% in the first half of 2004, and will exceed 8% in the whole year. It will continue to maintain rapid development in 2005. At the same time, China is a country with stable political situation and good investment environment. It adheres to the production and construction as the center and the policy of expanding domestic demand. The country has achieved sustained and rapid economic development, providing a good environment for the development of the paper industry. The growth rate of China's paper and paperboard output has been significantly higher than that of China's GDP for several consecutive years (the average output of the paper industry increased by 12.55% from 2000 to 2003, and the GDP increased by 8.45% in the same period). From 2000 to 2003, the average induction coefficient of the paper industry was 1.4, indicating that the development of the paper industry is faster than the development of the national economy, and that the contribution of the paper industry to the development of the national economy will always maintain strong demand with the development of China's national economy, It is developing at a higher rate than GDP, which is an important feature of the paper industry different from other industries, and also an important reason why developed countries and regions have developed paper industry. The total economic output of Guangdong Province ranks first among all provinces in the country, and its development speed is also fast. In 2003, the GDP reached 1345billion yuan, an increase of 13.6%, 4.5 percentage points higher than the national average. The import and export trade reached 283.64 billion US dollars, an increase of 28.3% (of which exports were 152.94 billion US dollars). The foreign trade surplus was 2.224 billion US dollars, accounting for 35% of the total national import and export trade. In the first half of this year, the GDP of the whole province reached 696billion yuan, an increase of 15.1% over the same period last year, 5.4 percentage points higher than the national average growth. Foreign trade continued to maintain a rapid growth rate, with the total import and export volume reaching US $159.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28% (including exports of US $82.9 billion, an increase of 26%). It is expected that the major indicators of the province in 2004 will greatly exceed the goals adopted by the provincial people's Congress, and the rapid economic development has created conditions for the development of the paper industry in Guangdong Province. The growth rate of paper and paperboard output in Guangdong Province has been significantly higher than that of Guangdong's GDP for several consecutive years (the average output of Guangdong's paper industry increased by 27.4% from 2000 to 2003, and the GDP increased by 11.9% in the same period). This further shows that the paper industry has an important position in the national economy and a very large development space. It also confirms that in economically developed Guangdong Province, anchor fatigue testing machines are used to determine metals The fatigue characteristics, fatigue life, prefabricated cracks and crack expansion experiments of alloy materials and their components (such as operating joints, fixed parts, spiral moving parts, etc.) under tensile, compressive or tensile alternating loads at room temperature must have a developed paper industry. The provincial government, especially the State Council, recently approved the national development and Reform Commission's "Tenth Five Year Plan for the construction of the national forestry and paper integration project" and the special plan for 2010, which focuses on the development of forestry in Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan in the southeast region suitable for forestry. It plans to invest 200billion yuan in China's forestry and papermaking in 10 years, build a fast-growing and high-yield papermaking forest base of 5million hectares, increase the output of 5.5 million tons of wood pulp, and increase the proportion of domestic wood pulp from the current 6% to 20%, Realize the common development of papermaking and forestry; Various preferential policies approved by the state to support the economic development of Hong Kong and Macao (especially zero tariff on imported products); The first Pan Pearl River Delta (9+2) economic and trade cooperation forum held this year will play a role of mutual benefit, mutual assistance and common coordinated development, and will have a far-reaching impact on the economic development of these regions; The transformation and application of the research results of industrial competitiveness in Guangdong has achieved remarkable results, and will play a great role in promoting the implementation of various policies, plans and measures in the future. These measures will not only greatly promote the economic development of Guangdong, but also have a significant impact on the present and future of Guangdong's paper industry. In a word, Guangdong paper industry is facing the favorable conditions of good domestic macro political and economic environment, continuous expansion of market scale and gradual maturity of market growth. At the same time, there are also fierce competition in the domestic market (between foreign imported products and domestic products, and between domestic and foreign-funded enterprises) and tripartite forces (namely, domestic and foreign-funded enterprises, domestic and foreign-funded enterprises). The shortage of raw materials and the shortage of coal and electricity still exist. It can be said that opportunities and challenges coexist, and advantages and difficulties coexist. Advantages dominate. Therefore, it is expected that the total scale and efficiency of Guangdong paper industry will be improved in 2004 and 2005. It is estimated that the paper output in 2004 will reach 7million tons, including 6.2 million tons of Enterprises above Designated Size, an increase of 14.2% over the previous year, and the profit and tax will reach 2.1 billion yuan, an increase of 11.2% (based on comparable caliber); In 2005, the paper output exceeded 8million tons, including 7.2 million tons above Designated Size, an increase of 16.1% over the previous year, and the profit and tax reached 2.35 billion yuan, an increase of 12% (according to comparable caliber). 3. Production and sales of main varieties and main raw materials 3.1 according to the figures released by the China Paper Association, in 2003, the national production of paper was 2.07 million tons, the import was 351300 tons, and the consumption was 2.41 million tons (an increase of 17.9% over the previous year); According to the statistics of the General Administration of publication, in 2003, 2119 newspapers used 2.84 million tons of paper (an increase of 15.76% over the previous year's 2.4551 million tons), a difference of 430000 tons (recycled paper produced by small paper mills across the country is not counted). Why did China speed up the research and development of non-toxic, low smoke, low corrosion, sterile and heavy metal free plastic additives and fillers in the United States and South Korea in 2003? When Canada and South Korea implemented the end of the anti-dumping review investigation on the import of paper, and continued to impose anti-dumping duties, the import of paper still reached 351300 tons, an increase of 76.36% over last year? The main reason is that at the beginning of 2003, the state abolished the provisions of implementing the sliding tax on paper import, resulting in a large number of paper imports from other countries. After several years of transformation, expansion and new construction, domestically produced paper can meet domestic needs in terms of quantity, quality and service. In particular, in 2004, the Ministry of Commerce made a ruling to continue to review the import of paper from the United States, Canada and South Korea and impose anti-dumping duties. The import volume will decline significantly. In the first half of 2004, only 30000 tons will be imported, and there will be no significant increase this winter and next year. It is estimated that the consumption of newspapers will reach 3.1 million tons in 2004, and the production will rise sharply to about 3million tons (including recycled paper from small factories). Now the paper mill has seen a new situation of increasing operating rate, giving full play to equipment capacity, rising paper prices and increasing benefits. In 2005, it will continue for a period of time. With a large number of new projects put into production, there will be a situation of supply exceeding demand (from 2004 to 2005, 1.45 million tons of capacity will be put into production). In recent years, the color printing volume of newspapers across the country has increased year by year. In 2003, the color printing volume of domestic newspapers has exceeded the total printing volume by more than 35%. Newspapers that were not good in the past have also begun to make good newspapers every day (such as the economy, the people's liberation army newspaper, etc.), and a few newspapers publish various advertisements with coated paper or low quantitative coated paper. Paper mills are required to produce more color offset paper to meet the market demand. Guangdong is a key province in paper production and also the province with the largest consumption in China. Its consumption is more than that of Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai. It produced 250000 tons in 2003 and 150000 tons in the first half of 2004, an increase of 31% over the same period last year. Due to the small quantity, there has been a shortage of supply. In the future, we should expand production capacity as soon as possible to meet the needs of the Pearl River Delta, Hong Kong and Macao. 3.2 the provincial government of alkali offset book and journal paper, letterpress paper and other writing and printing paper. They are the owners of domestic books, primary and secondary school textbooks, periodicals and magazines. Wu Guanghui pointed out that paper should be used, which is mostly produced by small and medium-sized paper mills, with stable consumption and relatively fixed supply and marketing channels. According to the statistics of the General Administration of publication, the paper consumption in 2002 was 1.3244 million tons, 1.3451 million tons in 2003, and 1.5 million tons in 2003, which can meet the needs. There was little change in market demand and production in 2004 and 2005. The total demand for this kind of paper in Guangdong Province is about 100000 tons, including about 30000 tons of textbook paper. At present, Guangdong Province produces 15000 ~ 16000 tons of offset book and magazine paper every year, and most of the periodical and magazine paper is offset paper. Guangdong Province supplies part of it, and the insufficient part is purchased by other provinces. In addition to offset books and periodicals paper and letterpress paper, Guangdong Province also needs other printing and writing paper, which is not only large in quantity, but also high in quality, but its conductivity (IACS) does not exceed 107%. At present, because they cannot meet the printing requirements, foreign printers bring their own base paper to printing plants in Shenzhen, Dongguan, Guangzhou, Foshan, Heshan, Zhaoxing, Zhuhai and other places for processing. According to the estimation of Guangdong Printing Association, it accounts for about 20% of the printing volume in the province, and the paper consumption is about 1.5 million tons. Other writing paper, offset paper, copy paper, computer base paper, etc., due to the small production in the province, should also be imported from abroad and purchased from other provinces. In 2003, the province produced 230000 tons, imported 293700 tons, and other provinces purchased about 500000 tons. We urgently hope that the Xinhui Yinzhou Lake Golden Eagle Group's annual output of 450000 tons of high-grade printing paper project will be completed and put into operation, changing the backward situation of Guangdong's writing and printing paper. 3.3 alkali coated paper is a high-grade printing paper, which has developed rapidly in China. Most of the new projects in recent years are in quantity and quality. The technology and scale are world-class. At present, the domestic market has been dominated by imported products from the past. In addition to meeting domestic demand, some products are sold abroad, and have increased year by year. The export volume in 2003 increased by 89% over the previous year. According to statistics, in 2003, China produced 2.1 million tons, imported 523400 tons, exported 353000 tons, and consumed 2.27 million tons. The production and consumption increased by 31.25% and 11.82% over the previous year. On August 6, 2003, the provincial government and the Ministry of Commerce of the people's Republic of China made a final decision on the dumping of similar products from South Korea, Japan, the United States, Finland and other countries to China. It decided to impose anti-dumping duties ranging from 4% to 71% on imported coated paper originating from South Korea and Japan for a period of five years, which is conducive to the production and development of domestic coated paper. It is expected that the production and sales of coated paper will enter a golden period in 2004 and 2005