The hottest light industry manufacturing demand re

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Light industry manufacturing: the recovery of demand is good for packaging leader

the current real estate regulation policy has been very strict, and there is little room to continue to increase. With the gradual formation of consensus expectations in the market and the pressure of short-term housing supply exceeding demand caused by the just need to concentrate on the market, we believe that the continued mild recovery of the real estate market will be a high probability event. Furniture is a downstream industry directly related to real estate sales, which generally lags behind real estate for 2-3 quarters. The recovery of real estate will drive furniture consumption to gradually warm up

In addition,

by 2020, the total capacity of power lithium batteries will exceed 100GWh

better demand is conducive to packaging enterprises, and the bargaining power of downstream determines its profit space

in 2012, the growth rate of many consumer goods segments slowed down, resulting in lower overall operating rate and lower gross profit margin of packaging enterprises. In the past 13 years, the demand for food and beverage, 3C products and some household appliances has warmed up, which will undoubtedly drive the gradual recovery of relevant packaging enterprises. As downstream enterprises will give priority to more powerful packaging suppliers when demand is strong, leading enterprises will benefit the most

packaging enterprises cannot face consumers directly, and it is difficult to completely surpass their peers, so their profit margin is generally determined by downstream customers. Customers who produce high margin products generally require the packaging to have sales attributes. For the higher requirements of product quality and stability, packaging manufacturers will generally be given greater profit space

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investment strategies and suggestions

it is suggested that the furniture and packaging industry in which the oversupply demand stabilized and rebounded in the second half of the year. As the current round of real estate recovery is mainly driven by rigid demand, and relevant government departments should give sufficient voice to domestic testing instruments, rigid demand groups are mainly young people, and the houses purchased are mostly small and medium-sized households, it is suggested to pay attention to Sofia, which can meet the fashion and personality pursuit of young people and whose products are more suitable for small and medium-sized households (002572 strongly recommended); Many sub industries in the field of consumer goods have recovered in the first half of the year. We are optimistic about leading enterprises in all kinds of packaging: Yongxin Co., Ltd. (002014 strongly recommended) has always firmly occupied the top position in the market share of the flexible plastic packaging industry in recent years. Its customers are concentrated in the fields of food, medicine, daily chemicals and other fields with huge market space. Cooperating with leading enterprises in related industries will ensure that the company can obtain steady growth orders; Meiyingsen (002303 strongly recommended) has strong downstream customers' profitability and high requirements for the quality and stability of packaging, so the company is expected to maintain a gross profit level higher than that of its peers. With the gradual signing of new orders and the gradual expansion of the service field, the utilization rate of new capacity will be rapidly improved, and the impact of depreciation on the gross profit of the company's products will be gradually eliminated. In view of the fact that the basic situation of oversupply in the paper industry has not changed significantly, and the paper enterprises are still operating at breakeven and low profit, it is suggested to allocate the paper sector at a low price

risk tips

packaging enterprises lack pricing power, and the sharp rise in costs will erode the profits of enterprises; Furniture sales are greatly affected by the real estate market. The unexpected real estate regulation policy will lead to furniture enterprises' profits significantly lower than expected

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