The hottest natural rubber market is expected to p

2022-09-22
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Tianjiao market is expected to interpret the cross year market

the price of Shanghai Tianjiao futures hit a new high in two months yesterday, and the global Tianjiao market is expected to interpret the cross year rising market

stimulated by many positive factors such as natural disasters in rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia and the strong growth of China's tire industry, the price of Shanghai Tianjiao futures hit a new high in two months yesterday. According to the analysis of insiders, the global natural rubber market is expected to show a cross year rise

since the end of November, the global price of natural rubber has entered a rising market. Among them, Tokyo Tianjiao futures turned to an upward offensive after hitting a one-year low of 184 yen on November 27, with a closing price of 241 yen/kg yesterday, up more than 30%; On the Shanghai rubber market, after hitting a one-year low of 17100 yuan per ton on November 15, Tianjiao closed at 19445 yuan per ton yesterday, with a cumulative increase of 13.7%

the natural rubber market is facing periodic supply shortages, and the El Ni ñ o phenomenon will once again visit the main rubber producing areas, resulting in the expected reduction of natural rubber production, which provides an important support for the rise of rubber prices. At present, the El Nino disaster is spreading in Southeast Asia, the rubber cutting operation is blocked, and the production of natural rubber is seriously damaged. In early December, Indonesia announced that it would reduce natural rubber exports by 10% to 1.8 million tons next year. According to U.S. meteorological officials, El Nino will peak in the next few months, which may lead to drought in Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines

market participants judged that the off-season of rubber tapping in Southeast Asia, which began in January next year, has actually arrived ahead of schedule. At present, rubber farmers, producers and exporters in Southeast Asia have a serious mentality of being reluctant to sell, which has also triggered the active rush buying of multinational tire enterprises and domestic importers, resulting in a phased imbalance between supply and demand in the rubber market in Southeast Asia. The situation of supply exceeding demand will promote the steady recovery of spot rubber prices

Kazuya, general manager of Marubeni commodity investment company, said recently that in addition to the upcoming El Nino weather phenomenon, social unrest may also reduce the rubber supply in Southeast Asia next year, but the huge capacity increase is also a huge warning to hundreds of wood plastic enterprises in China: we should not be complacent, and only pay attention to the important considerations of foreign markets

the Thai government's measures to curb the appreciation of the Thai baht are also driving up the price of natural rubber. After the Central Bank of Thailand announced the exchange control measures, as of December 25, the exchange rate of the Thai baht against the US dollar has fallen sharply to 36.37:1, down 3.68%. As the price of natural rubber raw materials in the three central markets in southern Thailand is priced in Thai baht, the depreciation of Thai baht will directly lead to the performance indicators of natural rubber raw materials nylon materials used in automotive engine oil pan components in the country have reached or even (partially) exceeded the design requirements, and the spot price will rise. Although the Thai government has restrained the appreciation of the Thai baht after the implementation of regulation, it has nothing to do with the depreciation of the US dollar, but this has led to the rise in the price of raw materials priced in Thai baht in the natural rubber raw material market in southern Thailand, and promoted the linkage strengthening of No. 3 cigarette glue and No. 20 standard glue priced in US dollars in Southeast Asia

China's huge demand market is still driving the global natural rubber market forward. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs on Monday, China imported natural rubber in November. Their research results were published in the journal advanced functional materials. There were 137966 tons of rubber, a decrease of 2.6% over the same period last year. In June, China imported 1.45 million tons of natural rubber, an increase of 16% over the same period last year. In the domestic rubber consumption market, the growth rate is consistent with the situation of natural rubber import. In November, China's tire production increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 36.91 million. China's total tire production in June increased by 16% year-on-year to 395.03 million. The total output of synthetic rubber increased by 12% year-on-year to 1.68 million tons. At the same time, the external dependence of domestic rubber consumption has increased significantly, which has exceeded the 70% threshold. The expansion of China's huge import scale has a strong pushing effect on the global rubber market

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