The natural rubber market is waiting for the "spring flowers"
after entering December, the global natural rubber market has experienced a supply crisis again. Due to the impact of continuous rainfall in southern Thailand, the rubber cutting work is blocked. In the traditional peak season of rubber cutting in December, the main rubber producing countries are facing the embarrassing situation of stopping production in the peak season. Although the Japanese rubber futures once showed three down limit trends due to the impact of the exchange rate and the liquidation of the fund before the new year, at the same time, the Shanghai rubber futures market rose 18000 yuan/ton for two consecutive times and failed to stand firm effectively. However, the tight supply in the spot market has gradually spread from the supply market to the consumer market. After entering January, even if the production area resumes tapping, if the supply cannot meet the new round of demand, the spot price of natural rubber is likely to rise again on the current basis, thereby driving the future price of natural rubber
Thailand's output accounts for 40% of the world, of which the southern region accounts for 70% of the total output of Thailand. The southern region can be said to be the main production area of the global natural rubber market. In December, the continuous rainfall in southern Thailand seriously affected the rubber cutting operation. After entering the latter ten days, there was another rainstorm in southern Thailand, resulting in flooding in 7 provinces in the south. If it doesn't rain anymore and the water level retreats at a normal speed, it is estimated that the rubber can be cut normally in 2 weeks and the factory can realize normal production in 3 weeks. That is to say, according to the current time process, the resumption of rubber cutting will wait until at least the middle of January. Obviously, from December to January and February next year, the main production areas in southern Thailand have been unable to cut rubber normally for at least one month, which will have a significant impact on the output in the first quarter of 2006. In northern Thailand, where the output is relatively small, many brands have released carton order areas in advance under inflation expectations. Although the aluminum powder production capacity has increased significantly, due to the impact of cold air, the supply of raw materials has been very small since mid December. While the demand is relatively stable, the tight supply situation will support the rubber price to continue to rise on the current basis. It is expected that in the first quarter of 2006, with the arrival of the peak season of global natural rubber demand, if the supply cannot keep up with the demand, the natural rubber market will continue to be bullish
in addition, recently, the global natural rubber market has mainly focused on the Tokyo rubber market, and its sharp rise and fall trend has become a hot spot in the market. Within a week, the price of Japanese rubber futures experienced a rise from a high decline and a growth rate of 10.6 percentage points higher than that of industries above the city level to yen/kg, and then rose again by the limit. "DSM's advanced materials have helped us achieve excellent sales deeds. Since the Tokyo Industrial Products Exchange changed from static to dynamic in early 2005, transactions have become increasingly active, especially the deep participation of funds from Europe and the United States in Japanese rubber futures has made its trend more volatile and speculative. The fund has been long in the Japanese rubber futures market for a year.
the main factor of the sharp decline of Japanese rubber futures in the early stage is the exchange rate market Triggered by the appreciation of the yen, the main factor that gained support and rose again after entering this week was the tight spot supply of natural rubber in the world's major producing countries. From the current high spot price, the fragile balance of supply and demand in the natural rubber market has shown signs of being broken in late December. If the fundamentals continue to extend towards the state of tight supply in the future, Tokyo rubber will have the potential to continue to reach a new high after this round of deep adjustment
compared with the volatile Japanese rubber futures market, the trend of Shanghai rubber futures market is relatively stable. From the perspective of its development trend, the overall upward fluctuation and upward pattern has not changed. The favorable factors of not reducing tariffs will support the current price of 17500 yuan/ton of domestic No. 5 standard glue, and Shanghai glue futures is expected to stand at 18000 yuan/ton in the future. At present, in the context of the cut-off, the limited inventory is easy to be stimulated by spot buying. From the perspective of position observation, there are large differences between long and short positions, but from the perspective of delivery, if the futures price rises in the future, it will be difficult for short positions to prepare goods calmly in the current state of tight overall inventory
to sum up, the overall supply and demand situation has determined that Tianjiao futures will continue to be bullish in the first quarter of 2006
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