The hottest natural rubber market in the future ma

Tianjiao is likely to peak repeatedly in the aftermarket.

on the 3rd, most varieties in the domestic futures market fell, and Shanghai Jiao fell sharply in the intraday trading. Under the pressure of fundamentals and capital, Shanghai Rubber plunged rapidly before noon on the 4th, and the rubber price continued to be weak after noon. At the end of the day, it closed at the limit, and the main 809 contract closed down 1120 yuan to 26805 yuan. Dynamic display of experimental torque and change angle

due to the lack of fundamentals, Japanese gum also fell sharply on the 3rd, reaching a minimum of 342.8 yen at noon. Insiders pointed out that the sharp rise in the price of natural rubber some time ago has accumulated heavy pressure on profit taking. Due to the fear of heights in the market and the recent improvement of the weather in the production area, the price of natural rubber may fall back and enter a volatile situation

the increase in the early stage is too large

the anti seasonal rise in the early Tianjiao market caused by the delayed harvest has accumulated a large increase. Statistics show that from late April to a new high of 28495 yuan, Shanghai rubber has increased by about 35%; In the current round of gains since early June, Shanghai Jiaotong has also increased by about 15%. In this process, the internal and external rubber prices continued to hit new highs, and the Bulls made a lot of profits. Li Man, a mid-term analyst in Shanghai, said that the main players in the early stage had made a lot of money. With the gradual decline of the beneficial effect of fundamentals, profit taking or backhand short selling had begun to appear

judging from the trading situation on the 3rd, the main contracts of Shanghai Jiaotong were traded in large quantities, and the positions declined to varying degrees. The trading volume of the main 809 contract increased to 579838 hands from 250690 hands on the previous day, and the position decreased to 124418 hands from 135974 hands on the previous day, returning to the level of three weeks ago

the short selling atmosphere in surrounding markets also suppressed the rubber market. On the 3rd, the futures in and out of the electronic session generally fell. In addition to a few varieties such as fuel oil and metals, many domestic futures markets also plunged in the session. Lin Hui, an analyst at Dongzheng futures, pointed out that due to concerns about the decline of oil prices after breaking the record high, the market sold a wide range of varieties with higher early gains. From the perspective of the market on the 3rd, agricultural products (000061, Guba) and rubber fell the most, which was also due to their outstanding gains before

Shanghai Rubber warehouse control response slow inventory increased

in addition to the standard that this equipment meets: driven by capital, the tension between supply and demand is the most important influencing factor. Continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian production areas and unfavorable weather in domestic production areas have caused widespread delays in rubber tapping, tight spot supply and declining inventories. However, the tension has improved recently

insiders said that the weather in Southeast Asia was mainly sunny this week; The output of India, another major rubber producer, also increased significantly. Due to the favorable weather conditions for rubber cutting, India's natural rubber production in June increased by 42.6% to 62000 tons compared with the same period last year, and the total output from April to June reached 178250 tons, an increase of 24.1% year-on-year

in terms of inventory, the natural rubber inventory in Shanghai increased for the first time in 15 weeks last week, with a slight increase of 380 tons to 17225 tons. Industry insiders pointed out that this week, the inventory of Shanghai glue may continue to increase, following the biodegradation of ecovio film, which can be decomposed into water, biological resources and carbon dioxide, and further pressure the futures price

topping will be repeated

although the supply pressure has gradually emerged, it is unlikely that the rubber market will turn from bull to bear in the short term. Lin Hui said that after the weather improves, the supply will gradually return to normal. However, due to the tight supply situation that has lasted for a long time, the spot price is difficult to fall back quickly, and it is expected that the aftermarket shock will intensify

li man said that at present, the rubber price is still supported by the demand from consumer enterprises. However, from the perspective of the spot market, the transaction of spot standard glue is still relatively light; In the later stage, as the inventory of downstream enterprises is replenished, the probability of rubber price falling is greater. If the inventory continues to increase this week, the material shortage side will work again

li man believes that Shanghai Jiaotong is still in the process of slowly building the top. Short term can be long; However, due to the global economic downturn, the demand for rubber in the second half of the year is not optimistic, and the rubber market as a whole is still cautiously bearish

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